Summary:

• Normal to above-normal rainfall is expected across most areas in Northwestern, Western, Southern, and Lusaka Provinces.
• Similar conditions are likely in the western parts of Central Province, including Nyimba, Petauke, Sinda, and Katete districts, as well as in the far northern regions of Luapula and Northern Provinces.
• In contrast, Copperbelt, Muchinga, and parts of Central, Eastern, Luapula, and Northern Provinces are forecast to get normal to below-normal rainfall

Summary:

• Normal to above-normal rainfall is expected across the country, with an increased risk of flash floods and flooding in vulnerable areas.

Summary – 2025/2026 Seasonal Rainfall Forecast for Zambia

• The 2025/2026 rainy season will be influenced by a neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) expected to shift to a weak La Niña, and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
  
• A weak La Niña may enhance rainfall, while the negative IOD could delay the onset of rains, especially in northeastern Zambia.
  
• Overall outlook: Rainfall is expected to be near-normal to above-normal across most of the country, with possible intermittent dry spells.
  
• Main rainfall period: Increased chances of above-normal rainfall are expected during December – February (DJF).
  
• Onset of rains:
  
  • October 2025: Northwestern, Luapula, Copperbelt (east), and Northern Provinces.
    
  • November 2025: Most central and southern regions.
    
  • December 2025: Delayed onset likely in districts such as Sinazongwe, Siavonga, Chirundu, Gwembe, Rufunsa, Luangwa, Chisamba, Kabwe, Luano, Chitambo, Lavushimanda, Mpika, Chasefu, Chama, Isoka, Chinsali, Mafinga, and Nakonde.
    
• Rainfall distribution:
  
  • OND & NDJ: Normal – above-normal rainfall in most areas; normal – below-normal expected in Copperbelt, Northern, and Muchinga.
    
  • DJF: Normal – above-normal across Zambia, with risk of flash floods and localized flooding.
    
  • JFM: Normal – above-normal in northern Zambia; normal – below-normal in western and southern parts.
    
• End of season: Rains likely to cease by mid-March 2026 in southern Zambia and by mid-April 2026 in the north.
  
• Validity: October 2025 – April 2026.
  
• Updates: The forecast will be reviewed monthly and supported by daily, weekly, and 10-day bulletins from the Zambia Meteorological Department.